Publications

Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming

Publication ID: pub.1132654393

Publication date: 16/11/2020

Keywords: Amplification; Arctic; Arctic Oscillation; Cooling; Eurasia; Extremes; Influence; Mid-latitudes; Sea-ice Cover; Warming; Wavier Jet Stream; Weather; Winter

Mangrove diversity loss under sea-level rise triggered by bio-morphodynamic feedbacks and anthropogenic pressures

Publication ID: pub.1132498864

Publication date: 10/11/2020

Keywords: Anthropogenic Interventions; Bio-morphodynamic Feedbacks; Mangrove Assemblages; Numerical Modelling; Sea-level Rise; Species Diversity

Mangrove forests are valuable ecosystems, but their extent and diversity are increasingly threatened by sea-level rise and anthropogenic pressures. Here we develop a bio-morphodynamic model that captures the interaction between multiple mangrove species and hydro-sedimentary processes across a dynamic coastal profile. Numerical experiments are conducted to elucidate the response of mangrove assemblages under a range […]

Tree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests

Publication ID: pub.1132440832

Publication date: 09/11/2020

Keywords: Amazonian Region; Biomass; Brazil; Carbon Dioxide; Carbon Sequestration; Ecology; Ecosystem; Environmental Monitoring; Forests; Models, Biological; Proportional Hazards Models; Risk Factors; Trees; Tropical Climate

The carbon sink capacity of tropical forests is substantially affected by tree mortality. However, the main drivers of tropical tree death remain largely unknown. Here we present a pan-Amazonian assessment of how and why trees die, analysing over 120,000 trees representing > 3800 species from 189 long-term RAINFOR forest plots. While tree mortality rates vary greatly Amazon-wide, on average trees are […]

A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming

Publication ID: pub.1132249792

Publication date: 02/11/2020

Keywords: Carbon Cycle; Climate Change; CMIP5; CMIP6; Earth System Models (ESMs); Feedbacks; Global; Global Warming; Projections; Soil Carbon; Spatial Emergent Constraint; Uncertainty

Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. An […]

High sensitivity of tropical precipitation to local sea surface temperature

Publication ID: pub.1132040100

Publication date: 26/10/2020

Keywords: Atmosphere; Global; Models, Theoretical; Oceans and Seas; Rain; Reproducibility of Results; Satellite Communications; Temperature; Tropical Climate; Uncertainty; Water Movements; Wind

Precipitation and atmospheric circulation are the coupled processes through which tropical ocean surface temperatures drive global weather and climate1–5. Local sea surface warming tends to increase precipitation, but this local control is difficult to disentangle from remote effects of conditions elsewhere. As an example of such a remote effect, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events […]

Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2

Publication ID: pub.1130075633

Publication date: 21/10/2020

Keywords: Atmosphere; Carbon Cycle; Carbon Dioxide; Carbon Sequestration; Climate Change; Ecosystem

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2 ]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO2 […]