Publications

Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement

Publication ID: pub.1105054518

Publication date: 25/06/2018

Keywords: Climate-carbon-cycle Model; Climate Policies; Decarbonization; Global; Global Average Temperature; Integrated Assessment Model; Mitigation Scenario; Negative Emissions; Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement1 aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with “holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C”. The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions2 and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the climate–carbon-cycle […]

Reduced heat exposure by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

Publication ID: pub.1105054517

Publication date: 25/06/2018

Keywords: Climate Extremes; Emissions and Warming Trajectories; Europe; Global Warming; Heat Exposure; IPCC; Model Experiments; Paris Agreement; Special Report; Unprecedented Heat; Warming Targets

The benefits of limiting global warming to the lower Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C are substantial with respect to population exposure to heat, and should impel countries to strive towards greater emissions reductions.

Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level

Publication ID: pub.1104548890

Publication date: 14/06/2018

Keywords: Animals; Anthozoa; Atlantic Ocean; Carbonates; Climate Change; Coral Reefs; Indian Ocean; Models, Theoretical; Oceans and Seas; Seawater

Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic […]

Hydrodynamic controls on alluvial ridge construction and avulsion likelihood in meandering river floodplains

Publication ID: pub.1104537145

Publication date: 12/06/2018

Keywords: Alluvial plains; Avulsion; Channel; Digital Simulation; Floodplains; Fluvial Environment; Fluvial Features; Fluvial Sedimentation; Geomorphology; Landform Evolution; Migration; Numerical Models; Rivers; Sedimentation; Sediments; Stream Sediments

Existing models of alluvial stratigraphy often neglect the hydrodynamic controls on channel belt and floodplain sedimentation, and predict avulsion using topographic metrics, such as channel belt super-elevation (the ratio of alluvial ridge height to channel depth). This study provides a first demonstration of the potential for simulating long-term river floodplain evolution (over >500 floods) using […]

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets

Publication ID: pub.1104336733

Publication date: 04/06/2018

Keywords: Climate Policy; Economy-environment Simulation Model; Energy Efficiency; Fossil Fuel Production and Exports; Global; Investment; Low-carbon Technology Diffusion; Macroeconomic Impact; Stranded Fossil Fuel Assets (SFFA);

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels1–4. This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here, we use an integrated global […]

Role of Marine Snows in Microplastic Fate and Bioavailability.

Publication ID: pub.1104129881

Publication date: 21/05/2018

Keywords: Animals; Biological Availability; Environmental Monitoring; Geologic Sediments; Oceans and Seas; Plastics; Water Pollutants, Chemical

Microplastics contaminate global oceans and are accumulating in sediments at levels thought sufficient to leave a permanent layer in the fossil record. Despite this, the processes that vertically transport buoyant polymers from surface waters to the benthos are poorly understood. Here we demonstrate that laboratory generated marine snows can transport microplastics of different shapes, sizes, […]