Publications

The global spread of crop pests and pathogens

Publication ID: pub.1015795542

Publication date: 27/08/2014

Keywords: Agriculture; Biotic Homogenization; Food Security; Fungi; Global; Invasive Species; Nematodes; Species Distributions

To describe the patterns and trends in the spread of crop pests and pathogens around the world, and determine the socioeconomic, environmental and biological factors underlying the rate and degree of redistribution of crop‐destroying organisms. Global. Current country‐ and state‐level distributions of 1901 pests and pathogens and historical observation dates for 424 species were compared […]

Potential influences on the United Kingdom’s floods of winter 2013/14

Publication ID: pub.1008669655

Publication date: 27/08/2014

Keywords: Burning Fossil Fuels; Earth System Drivers; Flooding; Flood Risk; Frequency; Greenhouse Gases; Hydrological Models; Impacts; Intense Rainfall Events; Risk of Occurrence; River Flows; UK; Winter 2013/14

The winter of 2013–14 witnessed severe flooding across much of the UK putting pressure on policy makers to improve future planning for periods of torrential rainfall. This Perspective puts the flooding in the context of historical records, critically examines a range of potential causes, and sets out research directions needed to achieve a definitive assessment […]

Human land-use-driven reduction of forest volatiles cools global climate

Publication ID: pub.1031458488

Publication date: 24/08/2014

Keywords: Assessment; Atmospheric Chemistry; Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs); Climate Impact; Climate Protection; Cooling; Cropland Expansion; Global; Land Carbon Release; Land Cover Change; Methane (CH4); Radiation Balance; Surface Albedo; Tropospheric Ozone (O3); Warming

The global radiative effects of historical cropland expansion are typically estimated as the trade-off between reduced land carbon storage (causing warming) and increased surface albedo (causing cooling). Now research shows that the net atmospheric chemistry effect (−0.11 ± 0.17 W m−2) is of comparable magnitude and should also be taken into account.

Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather

Publication ID: pub.1023510288

Publication date: 17/08/2014

Keywords: Arctic; Arctic Amplification; Arctic Observations; Changes; Climate Change; Climate Models; Extreme Mid-latitude Weather; Jet Stream; Northern Hemisphere; Planetary Waves; Sea Ice; Snow Cover; Storm Tracks; Warming

The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average. A literature synthesis discusses mechanisms how the associated decline in sea ice and snow cover could potentially alter mid-latitude weather, but uncertainties are profound.

Edge effects on moisture reduce wood decomposition rate in a temperate forest

Publication ID: pub.1004533728

Publication date: 12/08/2014

Keywords: England; Forests; Microclimate; Trees; Wood

Forests around the world are increasingly fragmented, and edge effects on forest microclimates have the potential to affect ecosystem functions such as carbon and nutrient cycling. Edges tend to be drier and warmer due to the effects of insolation, wind, and evapotranspiration and these gradients can penetrate hundreds of metres into the forest. Litter decomposition […]

Do seasonal‐to‐decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?

Publication ID: pub.1000298037

Publication date: 08/08/2014

Keywords: Decadal Prediction; Ensemble; Global; Predictability; Reliability; Seasonal Prediction

Seasonal-to-decadal predictions are inevitably uncertain, depending on the size of the predictable signal relative to unpredictable chaos. Uncertainties can be accounted for using ensemble techniques, permitting quantitative probabilistic forecasts. In a perfect system, each ensemble member would represent a potential realization of the true evolution of the climate system, and the predictable components in models […]