GLOBAL SYSTEMS INSTITUTE

Publications

The case for increasing the statistical power of eddy covariance ecosystem studies: why, where and how?

Publication ID: pub.1010606773

Publication date: 30/11/2016

Keywords: Africa; Australia; Carbon Dioxide; Data Interpretation, Statistical; Dumfries; Ecosystem; South America; UK

Eddy covariance (EC) continues to provide invaluable insights into the dynamics of Earth’s surface processes. However, despite its many strengths, spatial replication of EC at the ecosystem scale is rare. High equipment costs are likely to be partially responsible. This contributes to the low sampling, and even lower replication, of ecoregions in Africa, Oceania (excluding […]

A roadmap for improving the representation of photosynthesis in Earth system models

Publication ID: pub.1011094123

Publication date: 28/11/2016

Keywords: Earth, Planet; Ecosystem; Models, Biological; Photosynthesis; Plant Leaves; Vapor Pressure

Accurate representation of photosynthesis in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) is essential for robust projections of global change. However, current representations vary markedly between TBMs, contributing uncertainty to projections of global carbon fluxes. Here we compared the representation of photosynthesis in seven TBMs by examining leaf and canopy level responses of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation (A) to […]

Wellbeing in the aftermath of floods

Publication ID: pub.1011360991

Publication date: 26/11/2016

Keywords: Adult; Aged; Anxiety; Boston; Disasters; Female; Floods; Health Status; Humans; Interviews as Topic; Male; Middle Aged; Stress, Psychological; Somerset; Surveys and Questionnaires; United Kingdom

The interactions between flood events, their aftermath, and recovery leading to health and wellbeing outcomes for individuals are complex, and the pathways and mechanisms through which wellbeing is affected are often hidden and remain under-researched. This study analyses the diverse processes that explain changes in wellbeing for those experiencing flooding. It identifies key pathways to […]

Pipeline failure prediction in water distribution networks using evolutionary polynomial regression combined with K-means clustering

Publication ID: pub.1044952063

Publication date: 22/11/2016

Keywords: Evolutionary Polynomial Regression; K-means Clustering; Pipe Failure Predictions; UK; Water Distribution Networks

This paper presents a new approach for improving pipeline failure predictions by combining a data-driven statistical model, i.e. evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR), with K-means clustering. The EPR is used for prediction of pipe failures based on length, diameter and age of pipes as explanatory factors. Individual pipes are aggregated using their attributes of age, diameter […]

Changes to Cretaceous surface fire behaviour influenced the spread of the early angiosperms

Publication ID: pub.1047144400

Publication date: 07/11/2016

Keywords: Fires; Fossil Fuels; Humidity; Magnoliopsida; Models, Theoretical; Oxygen; Plant Leaves; Time Factors; Wind

Angiosperms evolved and diversified during the Cretaceous period. Early angiosperms were short-stature weedy plants thought to have increased fire frequency and mortality in gymnosperm forest, aiding their own expansion. However, no explorations have considered whether the range of novel fuel types that diversified throughout the Cretaceous also altered fire behaviour, which should link more strongly […]

Early warning of critical transitions in biodiversity from compositional disorder

Publication ID: pub.1032438516

Publication date: 03/11/2016

Keywords: Animals; Biodiversity; Diatoms; Insecta; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics; Stochastic Processes

Global environmental change presents a clear need for improved leading indicators of critical transitions, especially those that can be generated from compositional data and that work in empirical cases. Ecological theory of community dynamics under environmental forcing predicts an early replacement of slowly replicating and weakly competitive “canary” species by slowly replicating but strongly competitive […]